Friday game walkthrough

His workload looks to be in place, and his talent is simply off the charts. Taylor ranks first in success rate, first in breakaway percentage, and eighth in elusive rating. Any disappointment we have for Allen is partly based on our expectation that he should go nuclear every week, and he only goes nuclear from time to time. The Colts aren't a bad pass defense; they rank 16th in EPA allowed per dropback, ninth in pass rush grade and 24th in coverage grade. However, they're not a shutdown unit either.

Allen is more than capable of having a good game here. Oddly, this year, the Colts have been a small run funnel, despite ranking fourth in EPA allowed per rush and fifth in run defense grade. That's partly because they've played a slew of run-heavy teams, including the 49ers, Texans, and Titans twice.

Again, I think this is likely a scheduling quirk. The Bills are likely to play to their strengths and the Colts' weakness and could be more pass-heavy here than projections will generally indicate.

Stefon Diggs ' was under-performing in YPT entering Week 10, but that didn't necessarily mean he was "due" for a big game. That said, Stefon Diggs was due for a big game, and he got it. Diggs now has an elite 2. His matchup isn't a cakewalk this week, but Week 10 is a reminder that Diggs has an elite ceiling as Allen's clear WR1. Cole Beasley 's health creates uncertainty for the rest of Buffalo's wide receivers. He has a solid 1. He's still a rotational receiver and cannot be trusted.

But when Sanders does get targeted, he can rack up production quickly. Sanders leads the team with an He's still in play as a FLEX dart throw.

But the bigger picture is bullish for Knox if Beasley is at less than full health. Beasley sees similar underneath targets to Knox. Sure, Allen only targeted Knox once last week. But why go underneath when the Jets let you throw 13 times to Stefon Diggs at an average depth of The Colts will put up more of a fight, which should mean some additional underneath targets.

He's in the low-end TE1 mix. Matt Breida headlined the Bills backfield in Week 10 but played only eight snaps. Breida saw three targets and scored two TDs. His involvement is a disaster for the backfield because he's not playing enough to be startable but is stealing precious work for the snap leaders. I mentioned last week that Jared Goff was due for some regression.

In Week 10, we got it I thought Goff's profile indicated positive regression, with his accuracy outpacing his efficiency. But he had the decency to at least be inaccurate as well, ranking 24th in CPOE. But we now know that Goff's further decline was likely due to an oblique injury, which will keep him out of Week Tim Boyle will start for the Lions at quarterback. This week the Lions get a Browns defense that Mac Jones just teed off against.

Week 3's demolition of Justin Fields feels like a long time ago. The Browns now rank 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. However, Boyle should be a get-right spot for this defense. The Browns still rank third in pass rush grade and eighth in coverage grade.

It also shouldn't be a surprise if the Lions' passing game lay another egg here. Speaking of eggs Hockenson is coming off a goose-egg Week 10 performance; recording zero catches on a single target. The Lions will likely go out of their way to prevent that from happening again this week, but it's still a terrible sign that a zero-point outing is even a possibility.

He's also had an aDOT of 6. As a result, Hockenson is a low upside option with a low floor. At any other position, he'd be an outright bust Much like Alvin Kamara , additional snaps aren't necessarily ideal for Swift. The additional snaps aren't worthless—as Swift demonstrated against the Steelers by making up for five receiving yards with rushing yards on 33 carries.

But Swift's additional early-down work increases his risk of injury and doesn't play to his strengths as a dynamic back in the open field. Jamaal Williams has been limited in practice this week, and his return would be a slight downgrade for Swift. But Swift's ceiling would still be intact. Baker Mayfield will be playing through multiple injuries against the Lions, as he now has knee and foot issues on top of a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. The injuries are taking their toll; Mayfield ranks 22nd in EPA per play this season.

He's been decently accurate, however, ranking 12th in CPOE. Mayfield should be able to find efficient footing against the Lions. Detroit ranks 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 21st in pass rush grade and 31st in coverage grade. The fact that Mason Rudolph posted negative EPA against them last week should disqualify him from any discussions as the Steelers' next quarterback. Mayfield's agent will be holding his breath on Sunday. The rest of us can be reasonably confident that the free agent will get it together this week Johnson filled in admirably once again in Week 10 and showed some unexpected ability in the receiving game.

Cleveland's entire running back room was out for the game, except for Johnson, and they were trailing badly against the Patriots—so it was as ideal of a receiving script as a running back can get. With Johnson showing some Hunt-esque receiving ability against the Patriots, he may see usage similar to Hunt against the Lions.

So Chubb can still be counted on as the Browns' clear lead back this week. With the run-first Browns able to choose their means of attack against a weak Lions defense, Chubb is set up for a big day.

When the Browns do pass, their targets should be pretty concentrated. He has However, he has a shallow 7. If you ever find yourself frustrated enough with Kyle Shanahan 's personnel usage to wonder if he's an over-rated offensive mind, consider that Jimmy Garoppolo ranks fifth in EPA per play between Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes.

Garoppolo ranks just 19th in CPOE, showing accuracy much more in line with his actual ability—as perfectly measured by the Kerrane eye test, of course. Whether through coaching or his ability definitely coaching , Garoppolo is having an impressive season, allowing Deebo Samuel to continue to post elite production even with Kittle back in the lineup and Brandon Aiyuk back to a full-time role.

Whatever was going on early in the season is over with. He now has a solid target profile and is locked in as a full-time player. He's still well behind Deebo Samuel.

Over the last three weeks, Samuel has a ridiculous 3. He's having a true breakout season, and so far, Aiyuk's reemergence hasn't gotten in the way of that. George Kittle also hasn't been a problem. For the season, Kittle has a 2. As six-point favorites, the 49ers don't strictly need to pass here. And the 49ers strongly prefer not to.

They rank 31st in pass rate over expected and 28th in situation neutral pass rate. The quickest path to beating the Jaguars is through the air, however. Jacksonville ranks 28th in EPA allowed per dropback, 19th in pass rush grade and 22nd in coverage grade. The 49ers are never likely to have a truly voluminous passing game, but it would make sense to throw it more than they usually do.

The 49ers will run plenty as well, though. The Jaguars rank 20th in EPA allowed per rush and 22nd in run defense grade. They are a terrible defense, and it's possible the 49ers just embrace their tendencies and go run-heavy against a defense with little hope of stopping them.

Jeff Wilson saw his first work of the season against the Rams but was clearly behind Elijah Mitchell. Neither running back was targeted. Mitchell has withstood all challengers to his role since Week 1 but ranks just RB22 in expected points per game.

Because he doesn't have a receiving role, Mitchell is dependent on TDs to provide a fantasy ceiling. With the 49ers as six-point favorites, that ceiling looks more realistic than most weeks. Trevor Lawrence 's rookie season is circling the drain.

I tried not to be too harsh after Lawrence played terribly against the top-ranked Bills defense in Week 9. And Lawrence's struggles have hardly been limited to one week. Lawrence has played very poorly outside of a sunny patch against the Bengals, Titans, and Dolphins. So there's clearly some variance in how this matchup could play out. For the season, the 49ers rank 27th in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in pass rush grade and 10th in coverage grade.

If Lawrence is going to close the season strong, this is an obvious place to show signs of improvement. Jacksonville's wide receiver situation continues to be a dumpster fire. Against the Colts, Jamal Agnew scored a yard rushing TD and totaled 79 rushing yards, but he also recorded zero receptions on five targets.

For the season, he has a very poor 1. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault aren't much better. Both wide receivers have 1. Dan Arnold is the only receiver worth playing on the Jaguars. He has a 1. He remains the de facto WR1. Arnold could face a route squeeze if James O'Shaughnessy is activated from injured reserve this week. While that might seem nonsensical, O'Shaughnessy was the team's starting tight end in Week 1, and I can't put it past Urban Meyer to ruin the only good thing in this passing offense.

There's no doubt about who the lead running back is here. The 49ers rank ninth in EPA allowed per dropback and 12th in run defense grade, so it isn't an ideal matchup.

I thought that Tyrod Taylor might be able to breathe some life into the Texans' offense in Week As a result, Taylor now falls roughly where we expected before the season in efficiency and accuracy. Taylor now gets a defense that has come on as of late. The Titans rank ninth in EPA allowed per dropback.

This sets up as another frustrating week for Brandin Cooks ' fantasy managers. Cooks continues to dominate Texans' receiving volume. But that only goes so far on a low-volume, inefficient offense. Cook's 2. If the Texans can ever get going through the air, Cooks' role sets him up for a massive week.

But because he's on the Texans, he's a low-floor option, despite keeping elite company in target volume. This season, Ryan Tannehill ranks 11th in play-action rate, and he's up to ninth over the last two weeks without Derrick Henry. Tannehill hasn't been quite as efficient without Henry, but he hasn't cratered. He ranks third in EPA per play this season and 10th over the last two weeks.

But with the Titans still heavily utilizing play action, Tannehill could quickly return to elite efficiency this week. If so, his ceiling now looks higher with the Titans more willing to throw without Henry on the field. The Titans aren't pass-happy, but they've made a significant shift to the pass. As a result, we can likely view them as a Seahawks or Ravens-style team moving forward, i. Although, if the Titans are itching to get back to their run-heavy ways, they have an excellent matchup for it this week.

If there's going to be value in the Tennessee backfield, we should see it emerge this week. So it appears that Peterson's son isn't the only one who thought his pad level was off against the Rams.

It was actually D'Onta Foreman who saw his role grow. As a result, Foreman looks like a risky but viable starting option. The Titans could choose to lean on their passing game this week. It's really up to them.

Texans have become a run funnel mostly because teams can beat them easily and want to go home as soon as possible. The Texans rank 7th in EPA allowed per rush and 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, so they're actually much better against the run than the pass.

PFF's grades confirm this; Houston ranks 16th in run defense grade and dead last in coverage grade. The Titans will likely get up quickly and then salt this game away, but A. Brown should be able to serve as the engine of their initial lead. One of the most significant ways Titans have shifted since losing Henry is on 1st-and pass rate.

If the Titans continue to pass against Houston when they have to defend the pass and the run, it should help Brown bounce back from his one-catch, yard performance in Week Even after last week's 0. Even better, he's actually running cold with an 8. So not only is Brown very likely to bounce back from last week, but he's also likely to see some positive regression on his season-long per target efficiency—he remains an elite WR1.

Marcus Johnson benefited from Brown's poor showing in Week 10, but his 5-for day was likely a mirage. As a result, Brown looks like the only reliable option in this passing game. Aaron Rodgers returned in Week 10 after not being able to practice all week.

It showed. This week he faces an above-average Vikings defense that ranks 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, 12th in pass rush grade and seventh in coverage grade. Rodgers should be better than he was against the Seahawks, but regardless, he may struggle to support a ton of passing production because Green Bay plays incredibly slowly.

The Packers rank 29th in situation neutral pace and are snapping the ball with an average of 6. Somehow, we are relying on Mike Zimmer to push the Packers here. Davante Adams has been a bit quiet with lines of and over the last two weeks. But, even if the Packers have a low volume day, Adams can get back on track While Adams can go off in any week, every other receiver needs a spike in passing volume or a random spike in efficiency to provide value.

Valdes-Scantling has a But Cobb leads the group with a 1. Aaron Jones appears to have avoided a season-ending knee injury, but he will still be out for this week.

That leaves A. Dillon in position for workhorse usage. Dillon appears locked in as a usage-based RB1 this week. The critical question is if Dillon will also be targeted heavily.

But Kylin Hill has a torn ACL, and it's not clear who else the Packers can turn to as a receiver in the backfield, so Dillon looks to be live for a significant receiving role.

Dillon has also flashed exceptionally well as a receiver. Despite being viewed as strictly a two-down player coming out of Boston College, Dillon has an elite 2. That's on a small sample of just 93 routes, but Dillon has a career 1.

He might not be a superstar in the passing game, but he's not a total dud either and should at least be good enough for the Packers to run their standard offense. With Dillon consolidating what has been a split backfield for years, he is in line to put up elite fantasy production. He's averaged No matter how you slice it, this backfield is an obvious target when the work condenses.

He scored Dillon has been solid as a rusher, ranking 14th in success rate, 22nd in elusive rating and 24th in breakaway percentage. With the potential for an enormous workload, he should be a high-end RB1 play with Jones out. The Packers' defense is here to set things right. The Packers rank seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, 13th in pass rush grade and fifth in coverage grade. They're not an elite defense, but Cousins may have difficulty delivering a massive game against them The Packers' defense is a bit of a pass funnel.

Justin Jefferson is an elite option every week. He has an elite 2. Jefferson has access to an elite ceiling unless Cousins struggles and the Vikings double down on the run. Thielen has a 1. Conklin has a 1. He's a less reliable option than Thielen but does at least have tight end eligibility. Cook has in been position for massive fantasy production this season but has left 2. If the Packers play as slow as they usually do, it could allow the Vikings to lean on Cook in a low-scoring environment.

If Jackson was a regular quarterback, that would be a below-average profile. But of course, Jackson also ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards. Despite playing one less game, Jackson has 92 more rushing yards than Jalen Hurts ; he has nearly twice as many rushing yards as Josh Allen to When you add slightly below average accuracy to that package This week Jackson faces an exploitable Bears defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, 16th in pass rush grade and 27th in coverage grade.

Jackson has a very high ceiling every week due to his rushing ability. The Bears' pass defense shouldn't get in the way if he can also get things going on the ground. Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman returned to practice on Friday and look likely to play this week. Rashod Bateman is up to a 1.

But Watkins still negatively impacted the rookie enough to make him a low-floor option this week. Bateman could see more routes after Watkins made a few critical errors against the Dolphins, but it's possible he's not a full-time player with Watkins in the mix.

With a 2. Latavius Murray looks set to return this week and should regain his lead-back role over Devonta Freeman. He looks like an RB fill-in option, while Freeman should be left on benches. Justin Fields ranks fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo has just one less designed rushing attempt than Fields this season.

With the Bears coming out of their bye week, one could reasonably expect them to have more rushing plays installed for Fields.

But I think it's far more likely that we get more of the same from Matt Nagy and company. The nice thing about the Bears this week is that their passing matchup is strong enough to set Fields up for a productive day as a traditional passer. The Ravens rank 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, 16th in pass rush grade and 18th in coverage grade.

Fields should have a nice fantasy day here, even if he continues to see sub-optimal play design. Hopefully, he can deliver some efficiency to his receivers. Allen Robinson has a 1. He's now doubtful to play this week with a hamstring injury. He is also in line for some positive regression on his 7. Both Mooney It takes a leap of faith, but Mooney has a high ceiling this week as we've seen from a Bears' receiver all year.

Cole Kmet is also under-performing his target volume, with a 6. He has been targeted deep, with a 9. While the path to beating the Ravens is through the air, Montgomery should get plenty of work this week. They also rank 29th in situation-neutral pass rate. Lamar Jackson could quickly push the Bears out of a run-heavy script, but the Bears are very likely to be run-heavy when the game is close.

Forgoing an easy passing matchup would hardly be the most suboptimal plan they've put in place this season. The App is Back! Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards.

Get it here! But this week will test how much of their early-season identity remains. Only the Chargers are causing a more significant shift. The Raiders aren't as bad as the Chargers at defending the run, but they're better against the pass, which pushes opponents to the ground game. The Raiders pass rush, specifically, is outstanding. They rank first in PFF's pass rush grades. They are also solid in coverage, ranking 15th, and rank 15th in EPA allowed per dropback.

The Raiders are also solid against the run, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per rush and 15th in run defense grade. Teams appear to be willing to run against the Raiders to neutralize their pass rush, even though their secondary is exploitable. The Bengals just had a test like this when they played the Browns, who rank third in pass rush grade. They ended running more than expected, although it's hard to take too much from a game that quickly got away from the Bengals. Mixon ranks RB13 with Mixon doesn't have a ton of margin of error, however.

Even if the Bengals do go run-heavy, it's liable to slow the game down. And the Bengals already play very slowly, ranking 31st in situation-neutral pace. Furthermore, Mixon's target share isn't robust enough to ensure RB1 usage if the Bengals go pass-heavy.

And if the Bengals decide to take their chances against the Raiders pass rush, who can blame them? They have Ja'Marr Chase. Chase has regressed a bit and no longer has the best YPRR ever measured for a rookie. But he's still second to Odell Beckham. Tee Higgins may have also benefited from some additional time to get on the same page with Joe Burrow.

He should be having an incredible season—but Higgins is running very cold with a 7. As a result, both players should regress in opposite directions. Chase is still the better option, but Higgins will eventually explode if he can retain his target volume.

Tyler Boyd is in more trouble if the offense ends up being low volume this week. He has a 7. He needs a TD or high passing volume to access a ceiling. Uzomah is in the same boat. Granted, he went off against a weak Chiefs defense. But Carr profiles as a matchup-dependent streamer.

The fact that he has a ceiling in good matchups is precisely why he's interesting for fantasy. The Bengals aren't the Chiefs, but they can still be thrown on. Cincinnati ranks 11th in EPA allowed per dropback, 26th in pass rush grade, and 19th in coverage grade.

Meanwhile, the Bengals grade better against the run, ranking ninth. Opposing teams are aware of this dynamic and have attacked the Bengals heavily through the air. The Raiders are very likely to follow suit here because they already tilt toward the pass. The Raiders are tied with the Chargers for sixth in pass rate over expected and rank fifth in situation neutral pass rate.

He's being used deeper this season, with a But Waller is also simply seeing fewer targets. The good news is that Waller should have some positive regression on the way in his YPT. His 7. If Waller's efficiency spikes this week in a high-volume passing environment, he can deliver a massive fantasy performance. He's a better dart throw than Jackson but is still very thin. The issue for Jacobs in this matchup, and in general, is that he's in a low volume rushing attack and doesn't hit big plays.

He does make people miss, ranking 19th in elusive rating. But he would need to be in elite offense to produce RB1 weeks consistently. Kyler Murray is back at practice and looks set to play against the Seahawks after a two-week absence. A strong return could help generate some MVP buzz for the third-year star.

Seattle ranks 12th in EPA allowed per dropback, but they are a paper tiger. The Seahawks have played a schedule almost comically packed with run-heavy teams. They've also played three balanced but inefficient passing offenses in the Colts, Steelers, and Jaguars. The Seahawks have played just two formidable pass-first offenses: the Rams and Packers.

Seattle ranks 16th in situation-neutral pace and 12th in pass rate over expected, so it seems unlikely they'll intentionally slow down the game when they have possession. As a result, Murray is quietly set up for a big game in his return to action. With DeAndre Hopkins out again, target share should be condensed, making Murray far easier to stack in DFS and his receivers far easier to rely on in season-long leagues.

He played primarily on the outside in Week 9, with both A. Green and DeAndre Hopkins out of the lineup. Interestingly, A. If Kirk stays on the field in 2WR sets over Green, that is a big deal for both players' value moving forward. It could be that Kliff Kingsbury was working him in slowly after his concussion, but I think it's likelier that he prefers having Kirk in the slot in 3WR sets, even if it means having Wesley on the field instead of Moore.

Maybe things change once Hopkins is healthy, but for this week, Ertz is a full-time tight end in an up-tempo pass-happy offense. He's also bounced back from 's brutal 0. He's a shamefully exciting correlation play with Murray. James Conner disappointed against the Panthers with Conner has averaged But Conner could see his workload increase with Kyler Murray adding significantly more value to the offense. Wilson wasn't quite as bad from an accuracy standpoint, finishing 19th in CPOE.

But, shockingly, Wilson is down to 26th in EPA per play this season. It is unusual for a quarterback this accurate to be so inefficient, as you can see in the chart below. It's fair to expect Wilson to be less efficient than his accuracy would indicate on its own by some combination of his skillset, coaching, weapons, and offensive design.

But even still, Wilson should see some positive regression soon. Wilson will have to be at the top of his game to produce efficiently this week. He's going up a Cardinals defense that ranks 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 6th in pass rush grade and 6th in coverage grade.

The Cardinals are also set up to take away Wilson's biggest strength: the deep ball. Notably, the Packers have allowed the third-fewest deep passes this season. So the Cardinals set up as a better version of the defense that just stifled Wilson. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are incredibly talented, but this matchup presents problems. Lockett has a borderline-elite 2.

Even better, both YPRRs are in line with each wide receiver's underlying target volume. While the Cardinals may excel at limiting big plays, they have yet to face a passing attack quite like the Seahawks. As is the case each week, they are unlikely to hit their ceilings together, but one of Lockett or Metcalf could be in for a big game here.

He had just a 2. His 63 yards in Week 10 could easily be his highest yardage total of the season. This is not a pass defense that most teams are willing to mess around with. The Cardinals are also more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 8th in EPA allowed per rush, and are down at 31st in PFF's run defense grades.

The Seahawks are a balanced team, but the Cardinals won't have to twist Pete Carroll 's arm to go run-heavy here. However, even if they do go run-heavy, Alex Collins looks like a TD or bust option. Collins ranks RB36 in expected points since Week 5 and has left 2.

If Murray is unexpectedly ruled out, Collins becomes more interesting. After going ultra-pass-heavy in Week 1, the Cowboys head-faked toward being run-heavy but have ultimately settled in as a balanced team. On the second floor, go into the second room on the left.

Crouch down and walk into the tent. Inside will be a mask that we need. Take it, but leave the room open. Next, go to the fireplace and crouch down. Some idiot decided to put a mask there. Take it. Now go to the corridor that leads to the kitchen and enter the first door on your right. Go to that chair and look in the box to your left. So now we should have a bunch of masks. Time to put them to use. Go back upstairs to the mask display. Put the masks in order, leaving Part 5 out.

We need it for later. The second puzzle is a bit tougher, but no worries. Go downstairs and immediately turn to face the corridor and look left. See that diorama? Go up to it and take all the pieces. Next, go back to the wheelchair room. In the back left corner is another diorama. Go there and take those pieces. The final piece is down the corridor in the second room to your right in a box by the toilet.

The trick here is that we have to recreate two scenes from the movies. So go back to the wheelchair diorama and try not to jump as a snake suddenly crosses your path. For this diorama, you want Ali on the far left, white pants Jason in the middle, and Chris on the right. Now go to the other diorama. Jessica goes on the left, blue Jason in the middle, Steven on the right. Drawer opens, grab the patch. Two down, two to go. The third puzzle is easy enough.

This is why. Go to the wheelchair room and to the right table with the police car on it. See the badge? Grab it. Lower bathroom has a bandana for you to grab. Now go back to the kids room. Now to place them. Stay in the kids room and look by the door. See that pedestal? Badge goes there. Now leave the room and go into the one across the hall.

Take the VHS and put the yo-yo there. Pedestal in the wheelchair room gets the red bandana. Now go into the kitchen, turn right and open the door. Go in and behind the door is the pedestal where you put the blue hat. Hey, another patch! Final puzzle is easy. Go to the phone by the diorama and call Go back to the kitchen and turn left. Put the badges there and a secret door opens by you. Go down, answer the phone and that will end Part One! Jennifer Topic Creator 3 years ago 2.

Change it to June 13, Now go down to the cellar and answer that damn phone. Now things go sideways. When you get control, go to that axe in the wall. Go into the corridor and prepare to maybe squeak a bit. Follow him. Check the rooms and go downstairs. The first door on your left in the corridor can now be accessed and well.. Turn around and close the door. Sorry dude, we need your key.

Turn right and head to that shed. Use the key to get into the shed and take that shovel. Sorry, Triple H. We need to borrow it. Now turn around and follow the path to the stereo. See my earlier comment on it. The passcode is So grab the human happy meal Pamela.

We need that. You guessed it, we have to go in. Now this is a bit tricky and you might die. Walk in and go straight to the machete on the ground. Follow its direction to the row of ducks, then follow them. Use the shovel to dig up the corpse and relieve muffin of that patch. Failure to adhere to the paths set will result in death and a restart of that clearing. Now head up the path and break left towards the moon. Thanks, Mama I guess?

For the final puzzle, go back down the path and enter the graveyard. Time to supersize our graverobbing. Walk in until you see the grave. We need that, so take it. Now go to the grave and dig that corpse up and open up that coffin for a nasty sight. When you get control, go to the grave. Hey, another patch.

We need it. Go back down to the campfire now so we can use these patches. And apparently everyone is dead. Trade up and go onto the dock.